Netflix streams through TiVo

October 30, 2008

I recently called Netflix the little engine that could, with its announcement that its streaming content would be available through select Samsung Blu-ray players. 

Well, that little engine made it even further up the hill this week, adding TiVo as a streaming partner, as reported in the NY Times today. The score is now officially Netflix 5, everyone else 1. Meaning that Netflix has 5 different ways to get content into your home. That blows everybody else away.

I spoke earlier this week with Jim Keyes, Blockbuster CEO, on stage at the Forrester Consumer Forum. He made the case that Blockbuster didn’t want to marry itself to one device as iTunes does with the Apple TV. Instead, he wants Blockbuster to be available through any disc device (DVD or Blu-ray) and eventually any digital platform. But he didn’t see the digital platforms ready yet (despite buying MovieLink). And I buy that argument for the most part, but when you see what Netflix is accomplishing, it appears to be single-handedly fueling the market for digital platforms, one streaming partner at a time.

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Announcing the “Everywhere Video” contest – win a Flip Mino camera

October 30, 2008

Quick post just to let you know that today I officially launched the “Everywhere Video” contest. Where have you come across an unexpected video screen? In the back of a taxi? At the gas pump? In the halls of your kid’s middle school? 

One of the key predictions of OmniVideo is that an explosion of screens is about to occur. My former colleague and wonderful idea-man, Chris Charron, used to talk about the “Screening of America,” and we’re now seeing it come to fruition. There are more screens than ever before, being used in traditional ways and some surprising ways.

I’ve posted on a few of these, like a full-motion ATM video screen in NYC that runs ads when not in use for banking. But there are more, and my challenge to is is to find them and tell me about them. Go to the “Everywhere Video” contest page to see how to enter and win the grand prize, a Flip Mino digital video camera.  

I’m very pleased to welcome Jason Kilar, the CEO of Hulu.com and Daisy Whitney of TV Week and the New Media Minute video blog as my co-judges. We’re ready to sort through the best you’ve got. And if you’re concerned someone else already did yours, you can still win an honorable mention prize for having the most valid entries or the most creative submission. Go forth and compete!


Happy Birthday, Hulu.com! I knew you’d make it

October 29, 2008

It’s not really a birthday party, since this is only the anniversary of Hulu.com’s beta launch. Which is all the more amazing considering how far it has grown in a year — when half of that year was conducted in private beta. Since its official launch in March, Hulu can now boast that in September nearly 150 million videos were streamed.

This is phenomenal, it’s precisely the year-end target I had for Hulu in December. Now I have to ratchet that up to 200 million. To go from 0 to 200 in under a year is remarkable. Consider that in its best months, Comcast VOD streams 300 million video views. That’s a big number. Hulu will be at the level some time next year. Without having to invest in VOD servers the way Comcast did.

That’s right, folks, Hulu is here to stay. And <bashfully> I have to admit I called it. A year ago today, I published a report called Online Video Syndicator Hulu.com Overperforms At Beta Launch. I said:

Today Hulu.com, the NBC Universal and News Corp. online video joint venture, launched a private beta test that beats our expectations of what the company would achieve. It syndicates video, enables sharing, and does it all with top-notch content and a design flare reminiscent of Apple. If Hulu can keep expenses down, the company stands as a threat to competing online TV companies like Joost, as well as old-line cable companies and telco TV entrants.

Specificallly to cable companies, I warned:

itemCable companies and telco TV providers can begin the fear watch. By delivering a solution that advertisers want, syndication partners are happy to implement, and consumers will easily lap up, Hulu has assembled an experience directly comparable to that offered by cablecos and telco TV companies. Think about it: You have first-run TV shows, classic TV reruns, and movies from the back catalog. All you need is a pay-per-view option for new releases, and you might as well call Cox Communications, Time Warner Cable, or any of the rest and cancel your TV subscription while simultaneously opting for the fastest Internet connection they can possibly offer. That tells us what Hulu will offer next.

The warning is only stronger now as Hulu has even more content than it had back then and even more advertisers lining up to pay a premium on a CPM basis to participate. I hate to say I told you so…

Ironically, Comcast is a beneficiary of the Hulu experience since Hulu is the engine behind most of the content available at Fancast.com, Comcast’s online TV portal play. 

What about you? Are you a Hulu.com junkie yet? Are you doing just TV or have you browsed any of the hundreds of movies? I’m hooked on both. I’ve watched over 3 hours of video just on Hulu this week alone. That puts me squarely in the most engaged online viewer category and I have Hulu to blame.


It appears Netflix streaming will go HD with Xbox 360

October 29, 2008

The details are still coming together, but while I was busy at the Forrester Consumer Forum, this little tidbit came out, as trumpeted by Gigaom via the New York Times

Yes, I knew that the new UI for the Xbox 360, due out in late November, was going to feature Netflix streaming. That wasn’t news. But the interesting bit is that apparently, there will be HD movies as part of the deal. Reactions are quite positive so far, from the tweets I’m reading on Twitter. UPDATE: It appears Netflix has plans to roll this out to all its non-PC streaming platforms, not just Xbox 360 — read this post at CNET for details, including the high bandwidth requirements.

And I have to say that while this is a good move, and a relatively easy move, it’s more of a symbolic victory than anything else. For Netflix, the symbolic victory comes in being able to say it will be streaming HD quality movies to the TV not the PC (Hulu.com already streams hundreds of movies to the PC), something that cable companies charge much more for. For the Xbox 360, it will finally elevate the device’s chances of breaking through as a gaming machine to a home entertainment machine. When you add up how many people have watched video on the Xbox 360 — Microsoft says its about 30% of it’s 14 million Windows live customers, or more than 4 million people — that makes it more important than TiVo or the Apple TV in terms of the number of people it’s reaching, as I’ve said before. So going this next step makes sense.

But the move won’t push either company into new revenue or subscriber growth mode. Instead, it will confirm existing subscribers and remind them why they have already signed up in the first place. That’s always a worthwhile goal, especially in a recession, but a modest one.

It’s the long-term effect I’m interested in and I suspect that’s what Netflix is positioning for. Today, when you want to watch a movie, what are your top 5 choices? How different will that list be in two years? Maybe the better way to ask it is, where did you get the last 5 movies you watched? For me, without straining too hard to recall, it’s probably:

  1. Hulu.com streaming (watched bits of John Carpenter’s The Thing just yesterday while eating room service)
  2. Netflix by mail
  3. DVD rental from Hollywood video (it’s like, 2 mins away)
  4. Netflix streaming to Roku box
  5. Little bits of a movie my daughter was watching on ABC Family.

Here’s what’s not on my list even though I have these options: Apple TV, Xbox 360, premium movie channels, or cable VOD. What’s your five? Go on, surprise me:


Web stream of my speech at the Forrester Consumer Forum

October 28, 2008

Imagine my surprise to find out that one of the bloggers on the front row of the Forrester Forum streamed my keynote speech live. You can see the archive of the stream here. It begins with Carrie Johnson’s kickoff to the forum and then at about minute 11, she introduces my keynote. It’s not the best quality image or audio, but if you’re really interested in the speech, here it is in its glory.

Vodpod videos no longer available.

more about “Watch the stream of my speech at the …“, posted with vodpod


What is a Convenience Quotient?

October 28, 2008

A Convenience Quotient (CQ) is something we debuted today at our Forrester Consumer Forum in Dallas. It’s a new metric we have devised to summarize how convenient your product/service/channel is to consumers. In concept it’s straightforward:

Convenience = Benefits – Barriers

Basically, the convenience your product offers is a function of the benefits you offer minus the barriers that stand in your consumers’ way. If you offer tremendous benefits, people will overcome great barriers to get at them. If you offer modest benefits, even the slightest barrier will stand in your way. An example I offered today in my speech is depicted below in the slide (which you can click on to see a bigger version of).

 

A slide from my presentation at the Forrester Consumer Forum

A slide from my presentation at the Forrester Consumer Forum

In this example, you see the way the CQ works. You start from 0, you add up the benefits you provide (that’s the tricky part, obviously, and we’ve developed an approach to doing this which will show up in our research) on a scale from 0 to 1. Then you subtract the barriers that stand in your way. If you end up with a positive score, it means you have more benefits than barriers whereas if you end up with a negative score, well you know that negative scores are never good.

This example shows how CQs might work in the case of a banking website when a customer needs help with a serious issue (lost ATM card, missing deposit, etc.). I ran through sample scores that different alternatives might have: FAQ = 0 (few benefits, few barriers, cancel out); email = -.2 (many barriers, uncertain benefit); 800 number = .05 (some barriers, decent benefits); online chat help = .2 (many benefits, few barriers when done right).

It’s an important concept that we’ll be developing more fully in our research over the next year and I’m already getting smart questions and comments from forum attendees about it, so look for me to talk about it more on this blog as it relates to video entertainment.


Jim Keyes, Blockbuster CEO, taught me 5 things

October 28, 2008

I’ve been around the block a few times. By that I mean I have been to more than a handful of big conferences where CEOs talk about why their companies are the cat’s meow. And many times, these CEOs disappoint, falling into the role of simple cheerleader for their brands. We work hard to make sure Forrester Forums escape that pit, but it doesn’t always work.

That’s all in preamble to what I just heard from Jim Keyes, CEO of Blockbuster, who delivered. He took the stage for 45 minutes and told this audience the nitty gritty details of what it’s like to take a company many people have pronounced dead and transform it into a leader.

Jim sold me. Here are five important things I heard from Jim about the future of entertainment:

  1. One customer, many channels. Jim made a compelling case that Blockbuster is the company best positioned to have a true multi-channel entertainment offering: rental, purchase, kiosks, digital downloads, even a set top box strategy which he publicly acknolwedged but indicated would not happen this year. No competitor has the same opportunity to deliver through all possible channels to all possible devices.
  2. The over-the-top set top box business is not there yet. This is probably why Steve Jobs keeps publicly referring to the Apple TV as a “hobby.” While Jim acknowledged that Blockbuster will offer the same kind of product, when I asked him in Q&A to go in more detail, he said that these boxes are ahead of the customer right now and it doesn’t make sense to get one out there just to have one out there. He could subsidize, like he thinks Netflix is doing, but it didn’t make sense right now.
  3. Convenience is king. Putting aside for a moment that in the entertainment business, content is the real king, when it comes to the companies who want to deliver entertainment, convenient access to content is what matters. Jim discussed in great detail (including assumptions about pricing and consumer strategy that were alarmingly frank for a CEO speaking in public) about the business model implications and challenges they face in trying to make access to content convenient. Oh, and he used my Convenience Quotient model from earlier today, so of course I liked it :)
  4. Change is best when it comes from the top. One of the questions we get at every one of our events is, “how do I drive change in my organization to participate in this digital revolution?” Jim led his speech by saying he had a great opportunity if he could “inject change.” So I took the opportunity to ask him just how he planned to do that. His answer was as detailed as all his other comments, but the short of it is that he personally takes the responsibility to inject change, including communicating to every store manager each week. That way he can personally infect them with his own enthusiasm and ideas for the company’s future.
  5. You can’t get too far ahead of your headlights. Those were Jim’s words in response to me asking him the question about whether he’s actually innovating too fast by trialing kiosks and multi-channel experiences. He admitted he might be ahead of consumers just a bit, but was willing to experiment. As long as, he then confessed, that he didn’t get ahead of investors. I think that’s a lot of what is going here: Blockbuster isn’t just managing to customer’s expectations, but to Wall Street’s as well. From what I see, Jim is doing a good job of both. 

As you can see, I’m impressed by what I saw. Jim’s a guy who knows what he’s up to. If Blockbuster is going to turn itself around, I can’t imagine anyone more prepared to do it. More from the forum as it unfolds.