Blu-ray Association optimistic about holiday sales, hmm…

As described in this short bit from PocketLint in the UK, Blu-ray Association members think Q4 is going to be great, better than expected.

The evidence is that Blu-ray titles are reportedly selling 4x better now compared to the same time last year. Lessee, a year ago, Blu-ray still had a competitor, namely HD-DVD. It still only had a relative handful of movie titles to sell. And the PS3, still the dominant Blu-ray player, was only in a few million homes. Those constraints are fading.

If we’re only selling Blu-ray discs at 4x better than last year, that’s not exactly a sign that Blu-ray has gone mainstream.

Don’t get me wrong, as I have said before, I’m a fan of Blu-ray. Menus that overlay the screen, higher resolution — I love all of it. But in a down economy, a $67.54 1080p DVD upconverter at Wal-mart is an easy choice to make over Blu-ray. In this economy, I expect Blu-ray to take a hit. Taking a hit means not growing as fast as you otherwise would have, so it’s hard to say what that translates into over time, but it certainly means that the highest-end players will sit on shelves longer, discount pricing will be more aggressive toward the end of the year, and people who have a Blu-ray player will likely favor renting over buying, even with Netflix’s $1 a month charge for unlimited Blu-ray rentals.

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